Jim Walker 81
Greetings and Welcome to another Sunday matinee. Does it seem almost like déjà vu to you? It does to me because today again finds the Reds having their last chance to corral a single victory in this series. Unlike last Sunday though, the Mets are the Reds opponent this week; and, the game is at 1:40 eastern time in Citi Park NYC. Also, by the way, the Mets are riding a 9 game winning streak which has elevated them past Atlanta for the 3rd (and final) NL Wildcard spot. Buckle up.
Lineups
Starting Pitchers
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB% | K% |
| Julian Aguiar RHP | 16.2 | 6.48 | 1.50 | 7.9% | 11.8% |
| Luis Severino RHP | 159.1 | 3.84 | 1.26 | 8.1% | 20.3% |
| Links: Julian Aguiar’s Stats |Luis Severino’s Stats | |||||
Julian Aguiar
Julian Aguiar is listed as the Reds probable starter. Today’s game will mark his 5th MLB appearance and starting assignment. Most likely neither the Reds nor Aguiar in their wildest thoughts or dreams imagined him at MLB in 2024. But events happened and here we are.
While the 23 year old Aguiar looks to have MLB potential, the bottom line stats of his 4 prior MLB appearances is ugly. Nevertheless, the Reds as a team have won all 4 of Aguiar’s prior starts.
As the tables below outline, Aguiar has been hit hard, particularly so by left handed hitters. He does not have power pitcher credentials; and, his cause has not been helped by his lack of a strong put away strikeout pitch. At least with a BB rate under 8%, he is making the opponents put the ball into play.
In total, Aguiar looks like a work in progress. Hopefully he will return to Class AAA in 2025 where he can pick up the interrupted process of honing his craft to make his tools suffice as solid MLB pitcher.
Splits
| Splits | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 37 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | .242 | .324 | .424 |
| LHH | 39 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | .306 | .359 | .694 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-seam | Sinker | Change | Slider | Curve | |
| Velo | 94.1 | 94.1 | 83.7 | 79.5 | 78.2 |
| Usage | 35.5% | 16.8% | 20.4% | 19.7% | 7.5% |
Luis Severino
After lefthanded Mets starters in the first two games of the series, today the Reds face righty Luis Severino. Severino pitched with the Yankees starting in 2015, until crossing from the Bronx to Flushing Meadows in Queens to continue his career with the Mets this year. Today marks his 28th start of the 2024 season and 153rd start of his MLB career. The Mets are 14-13 in Severino’s previous starts this year.
As he has aged, Severino has transitioned himself from a 4 seam fastball, slider, and change up pitcher (99% of his pitches) into a more diverse repertoire. Most notably, he now also uses a sinker (25% of pitches) off his 4 seamer (35%) and mixes a cutter (9%) in with his full slider (23%).
This year Severino’s handedness split is 52% left handed hitters faced and 48% right handed hitters. Despite this, lefties have hit over twice as many home runs against him. Paradoxically, righties have nearly twice as many doubles against him as lefties. Overall, lefties hold sway across the board in the rate stats below, particularly in slugging on the strength of the skewed home run rate.
In his 5 most recent starts, Severino has pitched 30.2 innings. The Mets are 3-2 in those starts. Severino was the pitcher of record in all 5.
Splits
| Splits | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 322 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 67 | .225 | .307 | .340 |
| LHH | 348 | 82 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 69 | .261 | .327 | .417 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-Seam | Cutter | Sinker | Change | Slider | |
| Velo | 96.4 | 93.0 | 95.7 | 86.3 | 85.9 |
| Usage | 34.7% | 9.1% | 25.3% | 8.0% | 22.9% |
Bullpens
Reds
Jakob Junis went 5 innings as Saturday’s starting pitcher. Carson Spiers then threw 60 pitches finishing out the game following an ineffectual 12 pitch appearance by Sam Moll. Count Junis and Spiers out for today. Everyone else should be available unless they are being held back for upcoming predetermined assignments due to the starting pitcher shortage.
Mets
Curiously Edwin Diaz pitched the 9th inning Saturday despite the Mets having a 4 run lead. He has appeared in consecutive games and thrown 28 pitches. One would think especially with the short overnight turnaround, he is at best doubtful for today. Otherwise the Mets should be in good shape with deep performances from their starters in the first 2 games of this series.
When and Where
- Game time: 1:40pm ET
- Where:Citi Field New York City, NY
- Watch:Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
- Listen:700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 67°, sunny, <1% chance of rain
News and Notes
TJ Friedl went to the a hospital for tests after leaving Saturday’s game in the 7th inning with shortness of breath. The good news is the Reds say nothing “serious” was discovered in the tests. Friedl was discharged from the hospital after they were completed.
Cincinnati Reds center fielder TJ Friedl spent time at a New York hospital Saturday night for testing after experiencing shortness of breath. https://t.co/1JTz6Felzc
— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubMLB) September 8, 2024
The Reds announced a roster move this morning following Sam Moll’s abbreviated and ineffective stint last night.
The #Reds today recalled from Triple-A Louisville RHP Casey Legumina and placed on the 15-day injured list LHP Sam Moll (left shoulder impingement). pic.twitter.com/AAFE8lfkOq
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 8, 2024
Division Standings
This is just for old times sake, which beats saying “wait till next year” for the umpteenth time.
| Team | W | L | GB | Playoff Odds |
| Milwaukee | 82 | 60 | 0.0 | 99.9% |
| Chicago | 72 | 70 | 10.0 | 0.7% |
| St. Louis | 72 | 70 | 10.0 | 1.0% |
| Cincinnati | 68 | 75 | 14.5 | 0.0% |
| Pittsburgh | 66 | 76 | 16.0 | 0.0% |
Play off odds courtesy of Fangraphs.
81 Responses
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Mark Moore I’ll skip the pig kicking for today and just hope what looks like a patchwork line-up can muster enough hits to beat the Metropolitans. Mets were my team when I was quite young since we were in Northern NJ. Fun memories, if clouded by time. Plus the 86 push holds a spot in my heart because almost my whole family was watching as we were gathered for my Dad’s funeral. Hard to believe that was 38 years ago. Time stands still for no one.
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Mark Moore And Melvin, if you are around today, Angus T-bone on the charcoal grill this evening 😛
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Melvin MMMM Sounds awesome. 🙂
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Jim Walker Crossed my mind this week that we are about 6 weeks short of 20 years gone since my dad’s departure. That is over 25% of my time in this realm yet seems like yesterday in many ways.
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Mark Moore I hit 61 the day before we mark 38 years, so that’s over 60% of my days without him. He missed a lot.
I tend to say the memories take on a “fuzzy quality” as time passes.
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RedsGettingBetter Well, a very weak lineup on Sunday… Is it casual? Marte, Benson and Maile in the bottom of it…Low hopes to be a good offensive day but baseball brings surprises sometimes…
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Jim Walker I wasn’t expecting Freidl to start and figured most likely he was out for the entire day after his hospital trip overnight. To paraphrase a despised line around here, who else are they going to play in CF (except Benson) 😉
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Mark Moore Right. Because Hinds isn’t an option 😐
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LDS I would have taken a shot with Hinds, who has been in CF for the Reds a couple of times. Hinds may not hit, but it’s a pretty good bet that neither will Benson. Maybe he’ll surprise me, but I doubt it. Maile and Marte? Nuf said.
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Doug Gray Will Benson’s OPS in MLB since the All-Star break is .734.
Rece Hinds’ OPS since the All-Star break, while mostly playing in AAA is .481.
I truly don’t think most of you understand just how terrible he’s been for like 7 weeks.
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Mark Moore I hear you, Doug. And the numbers don’t lie. Benson’s strongest opportunities are against RHP. I suppose I’m just weary of the whole Wil Benson experiment.
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Mauired That’s interesting. Maybe Benson is finally getting back to being productive like last season. I’m hopeful this year is just his sophomore slump. Alot of people want him gone but Reds would get nothing for him and if he bounces back next year and duplicates last year, he’s a potential all-star.
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Mark Moore For some reason, my eyelids are feeling heavy. This game might tip me over the edge into Napland … 😐
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Mark Moore So Severino can get in a complete game at this pace … amiright? 😮
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Jon What a disaster of a season. At times, they’ve looked like legit contenders. Other times, they’ve looked like a team that is missing so many parts offensively that you wonder if it is even realistic to think they can win the NL Central next year. They now have wasted two of De La Cruz’s seven valuable years of team control. They wasted a resurgent year from Stephenson. They wasted an overall solid season by the SP staff. And perhaps the most frustrating thing about it all is that the lineup still has so many unanswered questions going into the offseason: What do they get from McLain and CES next year? Do they keep India another season after his second-half slide/regression, or do they eat his guaranteed salary and DFA him? What to do about Marte and his non-existent bat? And of course, who to acquire to fill the holes in the OF corners that Benson and Fraley are currently occupying…
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greenmtred See Mauired’s comment above about Benson. Fraley has led the team in batting avg. for much of the year. Yes, his power is down, but he’s had extenuating circumstances. He’s certainly expendable if the Reds get a good, power-hitting outfielder (who, though?), but he’s not a major problem. And dfa India?
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Mark Moore WLW is way out of sync, so I’ll settle in on the Mets TV broadcast instead. if I recall, they do a good job overall.
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greenmtred I’d consider ending it all if I had to listen to Ron Darling…
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Mark Moore Hard luck Maile strikes again … 😮
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Mark Moore And then Bader 🙁
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Dennis Westrick A little late to the party! I see Bell has amassed an offensive juggernaut with 3 batters in today’s lineup “hitting” below .200! Awesome! Results so far? No hits through 3 innings!
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Mark Moore Benson worked a BB and then hustled to 2nd on what was a stellar play to get Hard Luck Maile. Then Bader ran a great route to get India and end any threat.
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greenmtred Since they just scored a run, they have exceeded the output of yesterday’s “good” lineup.
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Oldtimer Reds won 3-1. MLB games are 9 innings, if not longer. You might wanna wait longer than 3 innings before deciding what might happen.
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Mark Moore Mets boot talking about how short that pole is. May have robbed Nimmo there.
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Mark Moore Running against a guy who throws out 63% … challenge coming. Ball definitely beat him. Gonna be close.
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Dennis Westrick Here’s a thought! Instead of walks and HBPs, maybe the Reds pitchers should force the opposing team to actually hit the ball!
Don’t know which offense is worse today! The Reds or the Bengals!
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Mark Moore It’s the two teams that lead the league in HPB and getting HPB. Go figure.
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Mark Moore Lucky that one didn’t end up in LF. Gave up Bike Helmets to get the lead runner. Probably not a good trade off, but we’ll see.
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Mark Moore A little luck and a Houdini routine 😮
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Dennis Westrick Again, minus the 2 walks and a HBP, not a bad 4 innings by Aguiar!
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Mark A Verticchio How can Bell keep his job after so many innings like this, It’s actually funny and sad at the same time. This team stinks.
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Mark Moore Because of his name … next question?
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DaveCT Wow. Luis Severino won the inning by himself. Pickoff, K, K. A once and future ace.
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Mark Moore That was ugly
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Dennis Westrick Is it just me, or does this 2024 Reds team seem to make at least one inexcusable baserunning mistake every game which is usually a rally killer? Let’s face it, this team is the poster child of the TOOTBLAN!
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Mark Moore See my post above. 63% of baserunners nailed. You aren’t as fast as Elly either.
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Mark Moore Why do you even risk throwing that one? Not a chance you are getting anyone with average or better speed. Put it in your pocket and move on.
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Jim Walker Be glad you saved at least 1 base just by cutting it off.
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Jim Walker I’m happy for Aguiar to have the day he had today. He is a kid who has been put into a tough situation and taken some knocks (5 HR in 16.2 innings coming into today) but has not folded and let a game get clear away.
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DaveCT I’ve watched Aguiar several times on MiLB TV in A, AA, and AAA. He just really competes with the arsenal he has, which us pretty good. Tough kid.
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Mark Moore I’ll admit, Severino is on today. Then again, Reds are gonna Red …
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Mark A Verticchio If Steer is here next year he should bat no higher than 6th, he is just way too inconsistent. That is just my opinion.
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greenmtred Nobody on the team is consistent this year. Not in a good way, anyway…
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Mark Moore Keith Hernandez is in the booth now. Just dropped by.
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Dennis Westrick If my math is correct, the Reds scoring drought has now reached 18 innings starting with the 8th inning of Friday’s game!
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Mark Moore Why does only 1 run in the 6th feel like a dagger to the soul?
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Mark A Verticchio This is so hard to watch.
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Mark Moore India with left elbow discomfort … 😐
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Mark A Verticchio In this situation you judge your manager on how hard the boys are still playing. Bell is getting a D at best.
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Jim Walker The third out was a bridge too far for Santillan coming back to the mound from the bench. Along the way, he did not get a called 3rd strike on a pretty good looking pitch and had his fielders unable to connect for the force out at 2B on the ball corralled by EDLC behind the bag.
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Mark Moore 8 K’s from Severino
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Mark Moore Marte temporarily gets off the schneid and ties it up.
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Votto4life Still batting under .200…that was quite a trade Krall pulled off for Castillo.
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Mark Moore Realized I hadn’t “pressed go” on my lunchtime cup of coffee. So now it’s a mid-afternoon one instead. I suppose that means I’m in for the duration.
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Mark Moore Metros will be our biggest fans for the next three games. And they just said the Jays took the lead against the Bravos.
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Mark Moore It’s Wilson … hold on to your butts … 😐
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Mark Moore Lindor riding a rather impressive 35-game on-base streak. Let’s hope we can break that today.
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Mark Moore Elly being Elly to end the inning. I’m in the camp that says he’s right where he should be at SS.
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Mark Moore A TJ Friedl sighting 😀
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Jim Walker The Cincinnati pro football team just lost their season opener 16-10 at home. Brace for testy folks dropping by here as they abandon the bandwagon.
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Mark Moore 😮
I only pay attention to college football. There was rather LOUD wailing at my house (and on the phone) when Notre Dame lost to lowly tomato can NIU. My Syracuse Orange, on the other hand … 😛
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Jim Walker The Buckeyes sent the Orange a decent to very good QB. He was being asked to fill some very big shoes in Columbus but after (ironically) that incredible finish against ND could not live up to the expectations.
I think it was a good mutual parting on both sides when he left OSU; and, he looks like he may have matured gainfully from the experience. Like many, probably most, Buckeye followers I wish him success.
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Votto4life If you are a Bengals fan, you don’t turn to a team that’s 69-75 for comfort.
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Mark Moore I do NOT have warm fuzzy feelings about this
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Jim Walker Well the Metz almost certainly do not have Edwin Diaz today. That could make a difference to the Reds favor if they can get through this NY 8th inning still even.
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Mark Moore Nice inning from Farmer. Complete reversal of his outing in Game 1
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JayTheRed Just wanted to say Buck Farmer has not gotten enough credit for the season he has given us this year. Way to go Buck and Reds, you should resign him for a 1 or 2 year deal.
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Mark Moore OK. As good as a Sac Bunt to give us an opportunity here.
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Mark Moore Santiago Espinal!!!!
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JayTheRed Espinal For the Win Again! Love the way this guy plays. He may not have great power, but he seems to be pretty clutch.
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Mark Moore Good bat control most of the time and a stellar glove at any IF position.
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Mark Moore Alex Young coming in.
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Jim Walker Here we go. Can Cincinnati’s Diaz brother get the job done with an extra run to work with?
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greenmtred Maybe. But it’s often the athletic equivalent of watching sausage being made.
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Jim Walker +500
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greenmtred Good sausage, though.
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Jim Walker Ring’em up. 😉
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JayTheRed Nice job Diaz. Keep that up and you can remain the closer.
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Mark Moore A win on a Sunday and we snap that Metro win streak (and innings without trailing streak as well).
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JayTheRed Atlanta for 1 game. Hope the boys can win it.
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