The National Hurricane Center said Francine gained hurricane status about 350 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana.
John Bacon,Dinah Voyles Pulver,Thao NguyenUSA TODAY
Francine strengthened into a hurricane Tuesday night and is expected to bring life-threatening storm surges and powerful winds as it barrels toward Louisiana's shore.
Francine, with maximum sustained winds at 90 mph, was moving northeast at about 10 mph and was about 185 miles east-northeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and 295 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, according to a 1 a.m. CDT National Hurricane Center advisory. Earlier in the day, AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex Dasilva said the storm appeared to be getting its act together, with high water temperatures in the Gulf potentially serving as "rocket fuel" for the system.
The storm battled dry air throughout the day Tuesday, delaying its arrival at hurricane strength.
"Now that Francine has a well-organized core, significant strengthening seems likely through Wednesday morning while the system remains over very warm waters and in low wind shear conditions," the hurricane center said in a forecast discussion on Tuesday.
The center added that computer models used to forecast potential increases in intensity "show Francine strengthening quickly" and nearing Category 2 strength on Wednesday morning. But an increase in wind shear and intrusions of dry air "should end the opportunity for strengthening just before Francine reaches the coast," according to the center.
Landfall is forecast along the central Louisiana coast on Wednesday afternoon, roughly somewhere between Lafayette and Houma, with a potentially deadly storm surge and up to a foot of rainfall. Francine is forecast to move north with heavy rainfall into Mississippi and then northward into the Mississippi Valley as a tropical depression, reaching Memphis by Thursday night.
Regardless of the wind speeds at landfall, Francine is still a large storm with significant potential for life-threatening storm surge and flooding, forecasters warned.
Once it makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast, but Francine could still drop torrential rain in Mississippi, southern Alabama, and northward into the Mississippi Valley as a tropical depression. A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle, the National Weather Service said.
Developments:
∎ President Joe Biden approved Louisiana's emergency declaration late Tuesday and ordered federal assistance to supplement response efforts for the storm.
∎ Mandatory and/or voluntary evacuations are in effect in many Louisiana parishes, including Terrebonne and Lafourche. Shelters opened in Terrebonne Parish. Mandatory evacuations in Lafourche Parish include residents in a FEMA-provided housing unit or a state-issued RV camper.
∎ A significant surge is expected, and water will begin to rise along the coast Wednesday morning.
∎ Swells generated by Francine are already reaching Gulf Coast beaches.
∎ All inbound traffic was suspended at the Port of Galveston and the Port of New Orleans is expected to be closed on Wednesday.
Residents urged to 'get a game plan'
Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, who previously declared a state of emergency, urged residents to "get a game plan, listen to local officials and follow your local news" to help minimize Francine's impact. Parts of the state may face a storm surge anywhere from 5 to 10 feet, depending on the area, with widespread flooding and up to a foot of rain in isolated locations.
Mandatory evacuations were ordered in some coastal communities in Texas and Louisiana. Some schools were closed, and sandbags were being distributed ahead of what was expected to be widespread flooding.
Tropical Storm Francine: Storm approaching the US
In an area struck before, a resident is ready: 'We have to take what comes'
Rick Momin works at Bayaks Country Store in coastal Cameron Parish, which was devastated by two hurricanes just four years ago. Cameron may be in for another devastating storm strike, but Momin says he likes living in the area for the fishing and lifestyle and is ready for the storm.
"I know that every year somebody is going to get hit, so we have to take what comes," said Momin, 49. "It is Mother Nature. We live by the coast and it's coming."
Francine path updates: See where Francine will make landfall and which parishes may see worst impacts
How should Louisiana coastal residents prepare?
The hurricane center advises:
- Protect your home – covering windows, securing doors, and loose items outdoors.
- Determine your shelter options and consider your pets.
- Ready your go-bags, medications, and supplies.
- Have multiple days of non-perishable food, water, and medications.
- Charge your phone and fill up or charge your vehicles.
- Help your neighbors, especially older adults and the vulnerable.
- Follow any evacuation orders.
"Conditions along the coastline in Louisiana and in the storm surge and hurricane warning areas are going to deteriorate very quickly Wednesday morning," Michael Brennan, Hurricane Center director, said. "Water is going to start to rise along the coast. Rains are going to begin, tropical storm-force winds are going to begin."
Brennan advises residents and visitors to be in a safe place to ride out the storm by Tuesday night, then shelter in place on Wednesday and possibly into Thursday.
Francine's winds could reach 100 mph
Thanks, in part, to unusually warm seawater in the Gulf of Mexico, Francine could still undergo what meteorologists call "rapid intensification," when a storm increases its wind speed by at least 35 mph within 24 hours.
But the center cautions people to prepare for one category higher than forecast, which could bring 100 mph winds over the coast.
While there's plenty of warm water for intensification, strong winds aloft are expected to increase, which could limit further strengthening, the hurricane center said Tuesday.
Still, Francine is expected to douse much of Louisiana and Mississippi with 4 to 8 inches of rain, and some areas could face a foot of rain through Friday morning that "could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding."
New Orleans will face worst of Francine on Wednesday evening
Francine is predicted to make landfall west of New Orleans, then potentially move over or near Lake Pontchartrain, bringing tropical storm conditions and up to eight inches of rainfall across the region, the hurricane center said. The worst conditions are likely to occur in New Orleans on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Tropical storm force winds could arrive as early as late morning Wednesday, then continue to increase, said meteorologist Lauren Nash, with the weather service office in New Orleans. Winds will start to decrease after midnight, Nash said.
Wind gusts up to 60 mph and "more than a month’s worth of rain" were possible, AccuWeather warned.Up to 5 feet of storm surge could also cause flooding along Lake Pontchartrain.
The office warned that residents should complete preparations by Tuesday night.
"The weather will get worse overnight and continue to worsen through Wednesday," the office tweeted − with the silver lining of improving conditions Thursday.
Storm surge could push water levels to great heights
The hurricane center warned of life-threatening storm surge along the Louisiana coast, prompting evacuation orders. "Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana."
Parts of Louisiana were bracing for torrential rains and high winds. Storm surge combined with high tides could push water levels in some areas 10 feet above ground, the weather service warned.
Louisana recovering from hurricanes Laura, Delta
Parts of southwest Louisiana are still recovering from the double disaster in 2020 imposed by Hurricanes Laura and, six weeks later, Hurricane Delta. The two storms combined to kill at least 49 people in the U.S. and Caribbean and caused more than $20 billion in damage, most of it in Louisiana. Laura made landfall near Cameron, where forecasters say Francine may crash onto land.
In Lake Charles, 50 miles north of Cameron, just days ago a 22-story skyscraper damaged beyond repair by the hurricanes was taken down during a planned demolition. The Hertz Tower had been the city's tallest building.
What you need to do when the power goes out
Brennan discussed these cautions during a Tuesday briefing:
- Use flashlights, not candles.
- Turn flashlights on before entering buildings to avoid producing a spark that could ignite leaking gas.
- Use portable generators outdoors, at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.
- Make sure portable generators are properly grounded and not overloaded.
- Drink bottled or boiled water because purifications may not be working.
Francine is the sixth named storm of the season
Francine is the sixth named storm of the2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the first sinceErnestodissipated on Aug. 20.
The system is one of three the hurricane center is watching. Another is in the central tropical Atlantic and is given a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm within 48 hours.
A storm farther to the east has an 80% chance of development over the next week.
Contributing: Doyle Rice, USA TODAY; Reuters
