The Oscars 2025 race for Best Actress is positioned to be highly competitive as former winners, nominees, and first-time hopefuls compete for the five available nominations. Following the tight race in 2024 that ended with surprise as Emma Stone beat presumed winner Lily Gladstone, the next crop of contenders for Best Actress in 2025 could be just as tight. The category for rewarding the best lead performance by an actress is likely to have some crossover with the 2025 Oscars Best Picture nominees, even if male-centric films dominate the potential field.
That could put the Best Actress nominees in a starkly different position than the 2025 Oscars Best Actor nominations. Several actresses in contention currently have leading roles in movies predicted to be outside the Best Picture lineup, even if they are ultimately recognized elsewhere among all Oscars 2025 nominations. Category jockeying is even still at play, with two former Oscar winners from the same film confirmed to be competing in Best Actress now. With time left before nominations are announced on January 17, 2025, Screen Rant's prediction for the Best Actress nominees at the Oscars 2025 are below.
Actress | Movie | |
|---|---|---|
1 | Angelina Jolie | Maria |
2 | Mikey Madison | Anora |
3 | Saoirse Ronan | The Outrun |
4 | Karla Sofía Gascón | Emilia Pérez |
5 | Fernanda Torres | I'm Still Here |
6 Others Contending For The Oscars 2025 Best Actress
Former Winners & Nominees Are Still In Contention
Although not currently in our predicted list of nominees, the Best Actress category for the Oscars 2025 still has many other contenders in the mix. The aforementioned Oscar-winning co-stars are Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore, who are the leads in Pedro Almodóvar's The Room Next Door. While the film has put Almodóvar in the mix for the Oscars 2025 Best Director award, Sony Pictures Classics decided to campaign both Swinton and Moore in Best Actress instead of putting one, Swinton, in Best Supporting. Whether that move works or splits their votes remains to be seen.
Tilda Swinton has never been nominated in Best Actress, although she won Best Supporting Actress in 2007. Julianne Moore won Best Actress in 2014 after four previous Oscar nominations.
The performances from Nicole Kidman in Babygirl and Demi Moore in The Substance could also generate enough support to get nominated, as both boldly expose their physical appearances while delivering exceptional emotional work. It would also not be too surprising if Academy voters turn to former nominees like Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Emma Stone (Kinds of Kindness), Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Florence Pugh (We Live In Time), and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths). Perhaps Lily Gladstone will even get in for Fancy Dance after her controversial loss in 2024.
5 Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here
A Potential First Career Oscar Nomination
Fernanda Torres could emerge as a Best Actress nominee for the Oscars 2025 thanks to I'm Still Here. Brazil's entry for Best International Feature revolves around a family dynamic, but it is Torres' character who is at the center. Early reviews have pinpointed her exceptional performance as one of the movie's best elements, which is saying something for a film with a 94% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. It's the type of performance that should help make more audiences, including Oscar voters, familiar with the Brazilian star.
This would be Fernanda Torres' first Oscar nomination, but the Brazilian actress has earned awards elsewhere throughout her long career. She's won Best Actress awards at different Brazilian festivals. Her biggest accomplishment was winning Best Actress at the Cannes Film Festival in 1986 for Love Me Forever or Never. The Academy's growing international voting body could bring added support for Torres.
The Best Actress category has a relatively good track record of showing love to international performances
It's worth noting that the Best Actress category has a relatively good track record of showing love to international performances too. Sandra Hüller was nominated last year for Anatomy of a Fall, and Penélope Cruz was nominated in 2022 for Parallel Mothers. There were also nominations for Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), and Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) in the last decade. Torres could join the international wave in Best Actress, but no actress has won for a non-English speaking role since 2008 when Cotillard did it for La Vie en Rose.
4 Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez
She's A Standout In A Best Picture Contender
Karla Sofía Gascón is definitely in the running for a Best Actress nomination in 2025 after Emilia Pérez. While her co-stars Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez might be more widely known, Karla is ultimately the lead of Emilia Pérez as she plays the titular role. And it is the combination of Karla's performance and her connection to Emilia Pérez's trans story, as well as the film's Best Picture contender status, that could propel her to her first Oscar nomination.
Karla Sofía Gascón's Oscar nomination would be historic if it happens. She would become the first openly trans person to receive an Oscar nomination. Elliot Page won the Best Actress Oscar in 2007 before coming out as a transgender man. The Academy and Hollywood have attempted to become more inclusive and recognize the work of all members of the LGBTQ+ community in recent years. This nomination would do just that since Karla Sofía Gascón is a transgender woman.
It won't be surprising if Gascón becomes the centerpiece of Emilia Pérez's Oscar campaign
There is already some momentum for Karla Sofía Gascón to get the Best Actress Oscar nomination and possibly win. She shared the Cannes Film Festival's Best Actress award in 2024 with her Emilia Pérez co-stars Zoe Saldana, Selena Gomez, and Adriana Paz. It's confirmed that Gascón will run in Best Actress, while her other co-stars will run in Best Supporting Actress. That provides a path for her to get even more attention. It won't be surprising if Gascón becomes the centerpiece of Emilia Pérez's Oscar campaign.
3 Saoirse Ronan - The Outrun
Will She Finally Win Her First Oscar?
The Oscars 2025 Best Actress race could be the spot for Saoirse Ronan to finally win her first Oscar. She had her first moment with the Acadamy Awards with her Best Supporting Actress nomination in 2008 for Atonement. After a few years without any awards recognition, Brooklyn kicked off an incredible run for her. Saoirse Ronan was nominated for three Best Actress Oscars in five years, and despite the acclaim of her performances in Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women, she did not win any of them.
Saoirse Ronan's Best Actress Oscar Nominations | ||
|---|---|---|
Movie | Year | Lost To |
Brooklyn | 2016 | Brie Larson (Room) |
Lady Bird | 2018 | Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) |
Little Women | 2020 | Renée Zellweger (Judy) |
The continued losses are a surprise considering there is no debate about Saoirse Ronan being one of Hollywood's most talented 30-and-under stars. That is once again on display in The Outrun. Ronan delivers a physically and emotionally demanding performance that almost demands to be taken seriously as an Oscars contender. The Outrun might not make any other marks at the Oscars 2025, but the Academy should once again recognize Ronan's work.
The question for Saoirse Ronan is whether Oscar voters and the awards season campaigns will swing enough votes her way. Since this would be the fifth time Saoirse Ronan was nominated for an Oscar, there is a strong narrative that its time to finally make her an Oscar winner, even if earlier performances were arguably better. This should be the time for Saoirse Ronan to join contemporaries like Jennifer Lawrence, Brie Larson, and Emma Stone as Oscar winners. The Outrun will need a great campaign to help her secure the victory.
2 Mikey Madison - Anora
A Breakout Role Could Lead To An Oscar
Mikey Madison is another strong contender for the Oscars 2025 Best Actress award. She does not have previous awards pedigree like Saoirse Ronan, but Madison is the star of what might be the Best Picture frontrunner in Anora. The young actress has continued to rise through Hollywood in recent years, whether its working with Quentin Tarantino or joining the Scream franchise. It was only after these films that she landed the lead role in Sean Baker's Anora, which explores new love and marriage as a stripper.
The case for Mikey Madison's Oscar nomination in 2025 comes through Anora's position for the overall awards season. It's our predicted Best Picture winner at the moment, while Sean Baker is also a strong contender for the Oscars 2025 Best Director category. It's potential to earn nominations elsewhere works in Madison's favor, as her prominent role in the film could gain even more support as the season continues. Anora's wide release in theaters will help better position her, too.
While a nomination feels like a safe bet for Mikey Madison at this moment, whether she can ultimately win depends on how the season progresses. If Anora keeps a strong hold over the entire awards process or if other contenders slip, then she could become the favorite. Mikey Madison would be one of the youngest Best Actress winners in Oscars history if she ultimately does win.
1 Angelina Jolie - Marie
Jolie Could Win Her Second Oscar
Angelina Jolie is the current frontrunner to win the Best Actress Oscar in 2025. She is all but guaranteed to receive a nomination for her performance in Maria, Pablo Larraín's biopic about Maria Callas. The Academy often likes to reward performances in biopics, even if that has rarely resulted in winning the Best Actress category in the last decade. That should not matter as much for Maria thanks to Angelina Jolie's involvement and the career narrative building around what reviews note is an excellent, transformative performance.
The Academy has not had many opportunities to give Jolie an Oscar nomination over the last two decades
This would be Angelina Jolie's third Oscar nomination of her career but the first in over 15 years. She was last nominated in 2009 for Changeling, which marked her first nomination in Best Actress. She was previously nominated in and won Best Supporting Actress in 2000 for Girl, Interrupted. The Academy has not had many opportunities to give Jolie an Oscar nomination over the last two decades, but Maria looks to be a movie that is worth the recognition.
It's also worth noting that Oscar voters have a soft spot for the lead actress in a Pablo Larraín movie recently. Kristen Stewart was nominated for Spencer in 2022, while Natalie Portman was nominated for Jackie in 2017. Neither Stewart or Portman managed to win the Best Actress category, so Jolie can break that trend if she does finish first in voting. Since her performance is Maria's best shot at an Oscars 2025 nomination, it would take some unexpected developments for her to completely miss out on the category.
